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Microsoft Currency Mechanism: 2027 Forecast

Microsoft now adjusts local currency cloud prices only once a year, on 1 January. Whether you order before or after that date decides which exchange rate you pay for the next twelve months.

1. The dollar sets the price, the franc follows

Microsoft sets Commercial Cloud prices in USD. The price lists in CHF, EUR, GBP, SEK, DKK and NOK are derived from it, and Microsoft realigns them with the dollar at fixed points.

When the exchange rate moves, the local price drifts too high or too low between two adjustments. Microsoft corrects it at the next adjustment, in either direction.

One example runs through this article. A Swiss company paid CHF 100'000 a year for its Microsoft cloud licenses in 2025, at list price. Every round of adjustments shows up in that number.

2. What Microsoft has officially announced

Until now, Microsoft reviewed local prices twice a year. In July 2026, Microsoft announced that from the current fiscal year it will adjust them only once a year. These points are confirmed:

  • The adjustment date is 1 January. The first annual update takes effect on 1 January 2027 and then every year on the same date, "except in limited exceptional circumstances." Microsoft does not define what counts as an exception.
  • The percentages arrive in November. Microsoft announces each November what applies from January. As of early November 2026, the notice for 2027 had not been published.
  • Commercial Cloud is affected across every purchasing channel. The update applies to the Enterprise Agreement, MCA-E and CSP alike. Microsoft explicitly left on-premises prices unchanged in the last round. It has said nothing about on-premises for 2027.
  • The method stays internal. No announcement names the exchange rate, the period or the threshold Microsoft uses. It refers only to "sustained fluctuations" against the dollar.
One dollar price, six local price lists, one adjustment date. The same rule applies to EA, MCA-E and CSP.

3. The last round: significant cuts in February 2026

On 1 February 2026, Microsoft followed the weaker dollar and cut cloud prices in five currencies. The pound stayed unchanged.

Adjustment on 1 February 2026 compared with the exchange rate move, per Microsoft and ECB
CurrencyUSD in local currency, Nov 2024 to Nov 2025Microsoft adjustment
CHF−8.7%−9.5%
EUR−8.1%−7.4%
DKK−7.9%−7.4%
NOK−8.1%−7.2%
SEK−12.8%−13.5%
GBP−3.0%none

For the example company, this meant that since February 2026 the same license volume costs CHF 90'500 instead of CHF 100'000.

The cut can be reconstructed quite precisely. By our calculation, Microsoft passed the dollar's twelve-month move, measured in November, almost one to one into the price list. Converted at November 2025 rates, today's price list puts all six currencies within 1% of each other.

Against the pound, the dollar lost only 3% over the same period, and Microsoft adjusted nothing. Microsoft has never named its threshold, but this case is the best indication available.

4. A look into the crystal ball: our forecast for 2027

Everything in this section is an estimate. Microsoft has not published any figure for January 2027 and does not disclose its calculation. We simply apply the 2026 pattern to current exchange rates.

Since November 2025, the dollar has gained again, mostly since June. The forecast compares the average rate from 1 October to 2 November 2026 with November 2025 and assumes Microsoft passes the full move through.

The dollar has recovered since February 2026. Our estimate for 1 January 2027, not a Microsoft announcement.
Forecast: USD in local currency since November 2025 and expected adjustment on 1 January 2027
CurrencyRate on 2 November 2026Forecast 1 January 2027
CHF+2.0%+3.1%
EUR+3.1%+3.2%
DKK+3.1%+3.3%
SEK+2.7%+4.6%
GBP−2.1%−1.2%
NOK−8.9%−7.0%

A plus means the dollar has become more expensive and local prices should rise. The column for 2 November shows a single day's rate, while the forecast smooths over five weeks.

For the example company, the forecast for the franc means:

CHF 100'000
Until January 2026
CHF 90'500
Since February 2026, −9.5%
CHF 93'305.50
Forecast from January 2027, +3.1%

Almost a third of the 2026 cut would disappear again, an increase of CHF 2'805.50 a year. Compared with 2025, the company would still pay 6.7% less.

Even this is not certain. The values for CHF, EUR and DKK are in the range where Microsoft left the pound unchanged in 2026. The adjustment may be smaller or not happen at all.

The picture is clearer for the Norwegian krone. At −7.0%, it sits where a cut followed in 2026. For the pound, −1.2% is unlikely to trigger an adjustment under the 2026 pattern.

5. Four steps before year end

  1. Microsoft's November notice replaces every forecast. Decide only after it is out, and map the percentage for each currency against all orders and renewals between December 2026 and March 2027.
  2. Plannable purchases belong before the deadline if your currency rises. Whatever you order in December, as an annual subscription in CSP or as an addition under an EA, runs at today's price. For the example company, that is worth up to CHF 2'805.50 a year.
  3. Monthly subscriptions take the new price immediately. Monthly CSP subscriptions pick up the change with the next billing cycle. If you license heavily on monthly terms, you will see it on the January invoice.
  4. The 2027 budget needs the forecast as a range. The example company plans between CHF 90'500 and CHF 93'305.50. The upper figure is an assumption, not a commitment.

Limits and exceptions

  • Azure works differently. Microsoft prices Azure under the Microsoft Customer Agreement globally in USD, and conversion happens continuously rather than in January.
  • On-premises has been excluded so far. Microsoft did not adjust on-premises prices in the 2026 round. It has not said whether that will hold for 2027.
  • Product prices change separately. The currency update comes on top of price increases for individual products, which Microsoft announces independently.
  • EA price protection delays the effect. For products with price protection in a running enrollment, the new price applies only at renewal. New products and new agreements follow the price list at the time of order.
  • Exceptions remain possible. In "exceptional circumstances," Microsoft can still adjust during the year.

What you should consider

  • Check the impact. List every agreement and subscription that renews between 1 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, and the currency each entity is priced in.
  • Lock prices if your currency rises. Annual CSP subscriptions and additions under an EA that you order before 1 January run at today’s price.
  • Watch monthly terms. Monthly subscriptions take the new price with the next billing cycle, so they feel the change first.
  • Confirm your price protection. Ask your Microsoft partner whether your price stays fixed until the end of the term, even if Microsoft adjusts in January.
  • Budget a range, not a number. Reflect the January update in the 2027 budget with a lower and an upper figure.

Bottom line

If Microsoft confirms an increase for your currency in November, everything you can control belongs before 1 January. If it confirms a cut, it belongs after, and until then every figure in this article is an estimate.

Michael Altenberger
About the author
Michael Altenberger
Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

Michael specializes in enterprise licensing strategy within the Microsoft ecosystem. He helps organizations decode complex agreements, optimize contract structures, and identify structural cost-saving opportunities. His expertise lies in turning licensing complexity into measurable financial advantage.

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